TL;DR
Retirement Drawdown: difference from bad sequence is £500,000 — Bad-early empties pot in year 28.
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Retirement Drawdown

Same average return, three sequences — see how order changes everything

Difference From Bad Sequence
£500,000
Bad-early empties pot in year 28
Bad Early Years
£0
Smooth Returns
£500,000
Bad Late Years
£822,062
Same Avg Return
5.0%
Quick context
Read full guide: Retirement Drawdown →
  • The 4% rule: withdraw 4% of starting pot, inflation-linked — historically lasts 30+ years in ~95% of cases.
  • A bad first 5 years of returns hurts a retiree disproportionately — same average, very different outcomes.
  • Mitigations: hold 1–3 years of cash, build a bond tent near retirement, or flex withdrawals down in bad years.
Stress test
What if the world changes? Toggle a scenario.
simulator
New difference from bad sequence
£500,000
Δ vs baseline
+£0
Real value 1yr out
£487,805
@ 2.5% CPI
Today£500,000
Now£500,000
Current plan. Scenario figures are illustrative — they scale your current calculation rather than re-running every band. Useful for direction, not for filing.
£
Fixed across all 3 scenarios
£
yrs
Same average across all 3 scenarios
%

Three scenarios, same average return

Bad earlySmoothBad late
The lesson: a bad market in your first few retirement years can permanently impair your pot — even if long-run averages are identical. Mitigations: hold 1–3 years of cash buffer, draw down flexibly, or use a "bond tent" near retirement.
Watch & learn
Safe Withdrawal Rates in Retirement
YouTube · MeaningfulMoney

Safe Withdrawal Rates in Retirement

A short, plain-English walkthrough relevant to this page. We curate from trusted UK personal finance creators.

Watch on YouTube
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